Trump Claims Iran Agreed to Abandon Nuclear Weapons as Gulf Strikes Escalate and Oil Markets Watch Closely
Diplomatic signals collide with fresh military exchanges across the Middle East, leaving investors and energy markets in a state of deepening uncertainty.
Nearly 100 days into one of the most consequential military confrontations in decades, the war between the United States and Iran appears stuck in a volatile limbo — neither heading toward a genuine ceasefire nor spiraling, at least not yet, into something far worse. On Wednesday, President Donald Trump offered what he described as a breakthrough in diplomacy. His counterparts in Tehran said the whole framing was misleading.
The back-and-forth has become a defining feature of this conflict.
Trump Declares Nuclear Concession — Tehran Disputes the Framing
Speaking on the New York Post's Pod Force One podcast, Trump stated that Iran had formally agreed to abandon its nuclear weapons ambitions as part of ongoing talks between the two governments.
"They've already agreed they're not going to have a nuclear weapon," Trump said. "That was the big thing."
He acknowledged the agreement was not ironclad. "They can change their mind," he added — a caveat that unsettled some diplomatic observers — but insisted the concession represented meaningful progress and that Iran's Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, was personally involved in the discussions.
Khamenei assumed leadership of the Iranian regime after his father was killed in the initial U.S.-Israeli assault on Iran in late February, and has not been seen publicly since. Trump, who said he had not had the "privilege" of meeting him, suggested that a meeting could happen if the talks advanced far enough.
Iran's Foreign Ministry moved quickly to push back. A government official who spoke to CNBC, while not authorized to comment publicly, called Trump's framing "misleading."
"Iran is a longstanding member of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and its nuclear programme has always been exclusively peaceful," the official said. "Repeatedly framing the issue as 'Iran has agreed not to have nuclear weapons' falsely implies that Iran was previously pursuing such weapons. That implication is inaccurate."
The Foreign Ministry spokesperson had separately said earlier this week that no negotiations had taken place on the specifics of the nuclear issue. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, however, told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Tuesday that Iran had shown a willingness to discuss aspects of its nuclear programme that it had categorically refused to address even a year ago — a notable, if carefully worded, acknowledgment.
A Ceasefire in Name Only?
On paper, a ceasefire remains technically in effect. In practice, the past week has looked considerably more like an active conflict zone.
U.S. Central Command confirmed overnight that it had intercepted Iranian ballistic missiles and drones targeting Kuwait and Bahrain, and had conducted retaliatory strikes of its own. One strike disabled an Iranian oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz using a Hellfire missile fired into the vessel's engine room, preventing it from reaching an Iranian port. Another targeted a telecommunications facility and a ground control station on Qeshm Island.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it had struck the U.S. Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain and a regional air base. CENTCOM said those attacks failed.
The exchange drew sharp reactions from Gulf nations. Iranian missiles and drones damaged a terminal building at Kuwait International Airport, killing one person and injuring dozens. Kuwait's Foreign Ministry condemned the attacks in emphatic terms and affirmed the country's right to respond. Bahrain said its defenses successfully intercepted three missiles and several drones.
Iran's response was to hold Kuwait and Bahrain directly responsible, accusing both nations of allowing U.S. forces to operate from their territory. Tehran said it reserved the right to self-defense.
A top adviser to Khamenei, Mohsen Rezaee, did little to de-escalate the situation. "The response to every shot and aggression will be a barrage of missiles and drones," he said.
The Gulf Pushes Back — and Calls for Unity
The United Arab Emirates used the crisis to call for a coordinated regional response. "There must be a firm, unified, and cohesive Gulf stance," said Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the UAE president. "The security of the Arab Gulf states is interconnected, their interests are shared, and their fate is one."
The Gulf Cooperation Council echoed that call, condemning what it described as Iran's determination to pursue destabilizing policies across the region.
Lebanon's President Joseph Aoun offered words of solidarity with Kuwait and Bahrain, and called for restraint to prevent the violence from spreading.
Meanwhile, Trump expressed frustration with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, saying he was disturbed by Israel's continued military engagement in Lebanon. "He's constantly fighting with Lebanon," Trump said, signaling growing impatience with a front that risks widening an already complex conflict.
The Oil Market Arithmetic
Investors tracking energy markets have had little to cheer. Oil prices remain elevated — holding just below the $100 per barrel threshold — sustained by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that historically carried roughly one-fifth of global oil supply.
Iran's state media reported this week that Tehran intends to fully close the strait in retaliation for what it describes as ceasefire violations. When asked whether the blockade would still be in place by Labor Day, Trump said he thought it was "unlikely" but conceded it could be.
"I think this will resolve itself fairly quickly," he said — a characterization that markets, and analysts, appear to be weighing with considerable skepticism given the pace of military exchanges.
With the strait constrained, alternative shipping routes are under strain, energy security conversations have intensified among major importers in Asia and Europe, and OPEC+ members not caught in the conflict have quietly benefited from higher prices.
U.S. stock futures were mixed following Trump's podcast appearance, reflecting the unresolved tension between diplomatic optimism and operational military reality.
What Investors Are Watching
The central question for markets is not whether diplomacy is happening — Rubio made clear it is — but whether any framework is durable enough to reopen the strait and allow energy flows to normalize.
Gold has maintained its elevated position as investors hedge against geopolitical uncertainty. Crude remains in a narrow elevated range. Defense stocks, particularly those with exposure to precision munitions and air defense systems, have benefited from the protracted conflict.
The prospect of an actual nuclear agreement — even one that is disputed in framing — would be a significant de-escalation signal for global energy markets. But Iran's Foreign Ministry has been careful not to confirm any formal concession, and the gap between what Washington says it has achieved and what Tehran will publicly acknowledge remains significant.
For now, the market environment favors caution. Liquidity conditions in energy shipping insurance markets have tightened as the strait crisis persists. Tanker rates have risen. And the humanitarian and economic toll on Gulf nations — from elevated air defense costs to airport damages and disrupted commerce — continues to accumulate.
The Bigger Picture
This conflict, approaching its 100th day, began with a joint U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran's military infrastructure in late February. Since then, it has fundamentally reshaped the geopolitics of the Middle East, drawing Gulf nations into a confrontation they did not initiate and cannot easily avoid.
Trump has cast the war as a strategic success — pointing to the degradation of Iran's military capabilities and his claim that Tehran has now agreed, at least informally, to nuclear limits. Whether history records it that way will depend heavily on what happens over the next several weeks.
A peace deal, if it materializes, would have sweeping consequences for energy markets, regional security architecture, and the global economy. A further escalation — particularly any incident that fully closes the strait — could push oil sharply above $100, revive inflation concerns in major economies, and delay any Federal Reserve pivot that equity markets are currently pricing in.
For now, both sides are still talking. But they are also still shooting.
Reporting contributed from sources including Reuters, CNBC, and U.S. Central Command official statements.